Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has intensified political debate after presenting what he termed as a “mathematical reality check” on President William Ruto’s re-election prospects.
Speaking at a recent gathering, Gachagua argued that the President’s current support base has significantly shrunk. He claimed that Ruto is largely relying on votes from the Rift Valley and only a fraction of support from other regions, questioning where the millions of votes needed for victory would come from.
Gachagua further pointed to shifting regional dynamics, alleging that leaders from Ukambani, Kisii, and Western Kenya are consolidating support behind different political figures. He suggested that earlier expectations of broad alliances may no longer hold, adding that voter turnout patterns in previous elections played a decisive role in determining outcomes.
His remarks appeared designed to cast doubt on the President’s 2027 strategy, while also highlighting the importance of coalition-building and regional mobilization in Kenya’s electoral politics.
Supporters of Gachagua say he is simply analyzing political trends, while allies of President Ruto dismiss the claims as speculative and politically motivated. As the race toward 2027 slowly takes shape, public declarations like these signal that leaders are already counting numbers and testing narratives long before the official campaign season begins.
