Political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi has stirred fresh political debate after claiming that former President Uhuru Kenyatta never intended Raila Odinga to win the 2022 General Election. According to Ngunyi, the apparent public support Uhuru gave Raila was merely strategic, while a deeper plan was allegedly being executed behind the scenes.
Ngunyi claims that the real architect of this strategy was former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i. He alleges that the plan was to allow William Ruto to win the presidency and rule for ten years, after which Matiang’i would be installed as president unopposed. In this alleged long-term succession arrangement, Raila’s role was, according to Ngunyi, never meant to culminate in victory.
The analyst argues that Uhuru and his inner circle were more focused on securing long-term influence within the state than on the immediate outcome of the 2022 election. By backing Raila publicly, the former president could weaken Ruto politically, while still allowing him to ascend to power under circumstances that would later benefit Uhuru’s preferred successor.
Ngunyi’s claims suggest that Matiang’i was being positioned as a technocratic candidate who would emerge later as a “clean” and uncontested option after Ruto’s hypothetical two terms. This narrative portrays Matiang’i as the long-term beneficiary of a carefully calculated political chess game rather than a spontaneous presidential hopeful.
However, these assertions have been met with skepticism and criticism. Many political observers argue that the claims are speculative and lack concrete evidence. Supporters of Raila Odinga have dismissed the remarks as revisionist and dismissive of the intense campaign efforts that characterized the Azimio coalition’s 2022 bid.
Still, Ngunyi’s comments have reignited discussion about power politics, succession planning, and the extent to which Kenya’s elite may engineer outcomes beyond what is visible to the public. Whether factual or provocative theory, the claims underscore a persistent belief among Kenyans that high-level politics often involves hidden deals and long-term calculations far removed from campaign rhetoric.
As with many of Ngunyi’s past statements, his remarks have succeeded in one key objective: keeping Kenya’s political conversation alive, contested, and deeply polarized.
